Have we returned to growth?

It’s interesting talking to the interim community as it enables me to constantly monitor and gauge market activity and trends. In summary, the message I’m currently getting is that the market is patchy and mixed.

Yes, we have seen a substantial increase in activity since June that has translated into a new record in terms of quarterly performance figures for Interim Partners, and yes, the pundits are forecasting that the UK economy will return to positive growth by the year end.

However, we’re not seeing the expected September bounce that many hoped for, and I still feel that a ‘recovery’ is not on the cards for quite some time.

My guess is that this will be Q3 next year at the earliest, particularly for the following reasons:

­ The latest figures from both the US and UK that underlines the fragility of the housing market, which in turn closely corresponds to consumer confidence. Activity has fallen both here and across the Atlantic this month.

­ Unemployment is still rising and consumers are saving money rather than spending it – albeit still at historically low levels, but mortgage and loan repayment rates are increasing.

If we also combine this with our economy typically lagging the US by a good 6 months, and a desperate Prime Minster overruling his Chancellor to say that we have already returned to growth, it leads me to think that although the Green Shoots are not exactly wilting, they’re not growing particularly strongly just yet!

Tom Legard is a Senior Consultant in the Manufacturing Practice of Interim Partners

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